Political Calculus
By Tony Rubolotta
If anything, the NYC mayoral election demonstrates the validity of political calculus, that is, creating or framing issues for voter appeal to win elections, no matter the negative consequences. Polling is useful, but there are some calculations so straightforward that polling is superfluous. A culture untethered from moral absolutes is easy prey for appeals to vice to drive political positions. Let’s look at the voter parameters first.
On any policy issue, voters can be divided into distinct groups. There are those who favor the policy, those who oppose the policy, those who are agnostic and could be swayed one way or the other, and those who are indifferent. The professional politician is interested in power and knows the political calculus.
What is “right” or “wrong” is meaningless and merely an obstacle to be overcome. Framing issues to win elections preys on human vices. There is also one human behavior that is almost inescapable: how do I get the most for the least? Politicians who take a traditional moral stand are dismissed as conservative, old-fashioned, out of touch, heartless, and dinosaurs.
FACT: There are more renters than there are landlords.
Policies that favor renters over landlords draw more votes, especially with a population ignorant of market forces and prone to envy. Renters are portrayed as needy and landlords as greedy to offset any guilt for succumbing to envy. Casting the issue as the “rich” versus the “poor” is almost always a winning division. Consequently, we end up with rent control and housing shortages.
FACT: There are more employees than employers.
Getting the most for the least is the driving force. This is why unions exist and are government-protected. This is why minimum wage laws exist. The fact that labor is a commodity subject to the law of supply and demand is ignored. Everyone pays for this ignorance with higher prices for everything and with unemployment.
FACT: There are more women than men.
The trick here is to formulate policies that have the appearance of giving women more power and portraying men as oppressors who must be silenced. Women with traditional values are portrayed as traitors, the useful idiots of the patriarchy, stupid, and uneducated. If you are not willing to kill your unborn child, there is something wrong with you.
The calculus here depends on the agnostic and indifferent vote not opposing the policies. Abortion is portrayed as a “woman’s issue” despite the disastrous impact on the survival of civilization. Wiping out future generations to reduce the “surplus” population is framed as a virtue.
FACT: There are more “poor” people than “rich” people.
The boundary line is that anyone who has more than you is rich. Taking from the rich and giving to the poor, minus a handling fee, is social justice, not theft. Enabling the deliberately non-productive is called charity, and if you oppose that, you are heartless, stingy, and greedy. The word “deserve” is given a new meaning. It is not something you earn through work, but an entitlement because someone has more than you do.
FACT: Government jobs create advocates for big government.
Government employee unions do not merely represent votes; they also provide funding and manpower that can turn elections. We hear that California, New York, and Illinois are facing pension funding deficits of catastrophic proportions. Why? Because politicians seeking government union support made promises and reached agreements without any regard for cost. Getting elected was more important than any financial consequences.
I could list other FACTS of political calculus, but I think I have listed enough for the record.
Is there a way to correct this self-destructive trend? Your ideas?
Tony Rubolotta is an independent new media journalist.
